Long-term prognosis after a minor stroke: 10-year mortality and major stroke recurrence rates in a hospital-based cohort.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Determinants of long-term outcome are not well defined in minor stroke patients. This study aims to evaluate which factors are independent long-term predictors of death and major stroke recurrence in a cohort of minor ischemic strokes. METHODS A cohort of 322 patients with first-ever minor ischemic strokes (mean age, 55 years; 89% were treated with antiplatelet or anticoagulant drugs) with minor (Rankin score=2) or no disability (Rankin score <2) were followed for 10 years, with only 6% lost to follow-up. Death and major stroke recurrence rates were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of factors with P<.1 at the log-rank test were evaluated by multivariate Cox analysis. RESULTS The 10-year mortality rate was 32%, with a relative risk of 1.7 (95% CI, 1.4 to 2.1) compared with the age- and sex-matched general population. The 10-year recurrence rate of major strokes was 14%. The hazard ratio (95% CI) of death was 1.1 (1.05 to 1.09) for age (1-year increments), 3.4 (2.2 to 5.2) for minor disability, 1.8 (1.1 to 3.1) for myocardial infarction (MI), 2.0 (1.1 to 3.7) for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, and 1.8 (1.2 to 2.7) for hypercholesterolemia. The hazard ratio (95% CI) of major stroke recurrence was 2.8 (1.3 to 6.2) for recurrent minor strokes, 3.1 (1.9 to 4.6) for nonlacunar stroke, 2.9 (1.3 to 6.8) for MI, and 3.0 (1.4 to 6.4) for hypertension. CONCLUSIONS In minor ischemic strokes, age, minor disability, MI, nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, and hypercholesterolemia increase the risk of death; recurrent minor strokes, nonlacunar stroke, MI, and hypertension increase the risk of major stroke.